Deep Dive: Bayern's Plot to Corner the Market on German Talent
Bayern Munich's master plan to horde German talent hit full swing over the past two years with the acquisitions of Sebastian Rudy, Niklas Süle , Serge Gnabry, Sandro Wagner, and most recently Leon Goretzka. Those additions join longer term Reds like:
Thomas Müller (homegrown)
Manuel Neuer (transfer from Schalke in 2011)
Jerome Boateng (transfer from Manchester City in 2011)
Tom Starke (trasnfer from Hoffenheim in 2012; unretured in 2017 when Neuer injured his foot)
Joshua Kimmich (transfer from RB Leipzig in 2015)
Sven Ulreich (transfer from VfB Stuttgart in 2015)
Mats Hummels (transfer from Dortmund in 2016)
All of that adds up to a surplus of German talent. But where does Bayern go from here if it does, indeed, intend to corner the market on Die Mannschaft players? Aside of those Germans throughout its roster, Bayern's squad is also comprised of some of the top talents worldwide. Given that, who is left for Bayern to acquire and which current roster members may fall victim to the purge?
In a totally speculative analysis below, we took a look at each non-German talent currently rostered on the first-team in Munich and how they may fit into the future at Allianz Arena. In addition, we scanned the list of top Germans from the rest of the Bundesliga, along with other top-tier leagues, and examined the plausibility of those players ending up with Bayern.
Bayern's First Team Global Talent
Arturo Vidal, Midfield: With the signing of Goretzka, it appears the bell has tolled on the Chilean's career in Munich. While the Reds will undoubtedly miss Vidal's two-way, box-to-box play and his tenacity, Goretzka will likely slide right into that role. Vidal still has enough in the proverbial gas tank to be a force in any league worldwide, but this is the classic "Sell High" scenario for Bayern. Vidal holds tremendous value and will demand a substantial transfer fee. The expectation is that he will join fellow Chilean Alexis Sanchez at Manchester United this summer, but possibilities also exist with Chelsea and Inter Milan, given Vidal's past connections to Antonio Conte and also with Serie A.
Thiago Alcantara, Midfield: Seeing a trend here with the Bayern midfielders? Simply put, like Vidal, Thiago is too good to be in a deep, midfield rotation and given the time he's missed over the the past three seasons, he will no doubt be looking to spend as much time on the pitch as possible over the next three to four years. The glut of players who can occupy the central midfield or attacking midfield roles at Bayern almost demands one or two players move on. With Vidal already the leader in the clubhouse to exit this summer, it's easy to see Thiago making the move back to FC Barcelona, which makes a lot of sense for all parties involved.
James Rodriguez, Midfield/Forward: James has solidified his spot as a key playmaker at Bayern in his first year on loan from Real Madrid. While it has been reported that James will be looking for a longer-term stay in Munich, it is possible that Real Madrid may want to reel James back in given the lack of cohesion it has shown this season in La Liga.
Robert Lewandowski, Forward: Lewandowski is where this REALLY gets complicated. The Polish striker is undoubtedly one of the world's best attackers and is as dynamic a finisher as there is on the planet. Powered by the playmaking of Müller and James, Lewandowski could eclipse his previous heights as a goal scorer if he can stay fit. It would seem crazy to think Bayern should be eyeing up a potential long-term replacement, right? Well...even with Lewandowski's greatness in hand, Bayern has to be looking at Timo Werner (see below) as the next, great German striker. It doesn't seem as if there would be a scenario where a Lewandowski-Werner combination would work given the other talent on the Bayern roster, including Wagner. Lewandowski, who is 29 and whose contract runs through 2021, has already flirted with the idea that playing out the twilight of his career with Real Madrid or even in the (gasp!) MLS, specifically with one of the two Los Angeles teams. Letting go of Lewandowski carries a tremendous amount of risk, but missing an opportunity to get Werner in the fold could prove equally as risky given Bayern's German-centric strategy. This is the situation where the outlook is most cloudy and where Uli Hoeness and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge could face the most internal debate.
Javi Martinez, Midfield: The versatile Martinez has experience a career resurgence under Jupp Heynckes, displaying the consistency and defensive aptitude in the midfield that is required for a successful run in the Champions League. Martinez, 29, would appear to solidified with his position at Bayern and at worst, would be a versatile veteran depth player as he ages.
Corentin Tolisso, Midfield: Tolisso has natural talent, but lacks the consistency of his more experienced midfield teammates. He may be the future, but there is a noticeable drop-off in play in comparison to the likes of Vidal and Thiago. As Bayern's most expensive transfer signing in history, it is doubtful the team will unload him on a transfer this soon, but perhaps a loan to a Premier League, La Liga, or even Serie A side would be a way to retain Vidal or Thiago for at least one more year, while giving Tolisso some much needed field time against a high level of competition.
Arjen Robben, Forward / Wing: Robben is as dangerous as ever with his left foot, but the years of wear and tear on his body have began to add up. While still a threat any time he has the ball on his foot, Bayern has to begin to evaluate if Robben would accept a lesser role to close out his career or if he will want to be with a team where he can still be an every game player. It's an interesting quandry as any young winger could surely benefit from Robben's wealth of knowledge in a mentor role, but the competitor deep inside the Dutchman may still want to be a vital cog in another team's offense.
Franck Ribery: Forward / Wing: Ribery, the wily Frenchman, is in much the same position as Robben. His experience and veteran presence are valued on the team, but each year adds more mileage to Ribery's aging body. Like Robben, Ribery could be an invaluable bench asset for leadership and mentoring --- while still maintaining the ability to contribute at a high level when called upon.
Kingsley Coman, Forward / Wing: The French winger appears to have a solid position on the outside for Bayern. It does not look as if Coman is not going any where, any time soon. While he still has some experience to gain, he is a natural fit to take over for Robben or Ribery when decisions on their respective futures are made.
David Alaba, Outside back: The Austrian defender has been a staple of the Bayern line-up and provides the two-way threat that the club desires on the outside. Still only 25, Alaba would seem to have long future at Bayern ahead of him after joining the Bayern youth system 10 years ago.
Rafinha, Outside back: Rafinha has been a model citizen and dependable defender during his tenure in Munich. Rumors have swirled that Rafinha has a strong desire to ride into the sunset playing in Brazil. At a minimum, Rafinha has earned the right to make that decision, though it's clear that Bayern values him enough to try and convince him to extend his stay in Germany a little while longer.
Juan Bernat, Outside back: Bernat is another Bayern roster member whose youth probably dictates that he needs to move on. On most clubs, Bernat would be a fine starting left back, but with Alaba cemented in front of him, the Spaniard is nothing more than a depth player at this stage in Munich. Expect Bernat to pursue transfer options this summer.
Top Non-Bayern, German Talents Worldwide
Marc-Andre ter Stegen, FC Barcelona: While ter Stegen is widely considered the second best German goalkeeper behind Neuer, his reputation worldwide is nderrated. The Barcelona keeper has big game experience in La Liga and the Champions League - and also had a standout performance in last Summer's Confederations Cup. Because of his stature as a known commodity (despite being undervalued on the global market), it would be very unlikely to see ter Stegen where a T-Mobile branded kit any time soon.
Leroy Sane: Manchester City: Sane has flourished under the guidance of former Bayern manager Pep Guardiola for City. It's hard to fathom Sane being drawn away from Manchester City any time soon.
Marco Reus, Borussia Dortmund: Reus is one of the great talents in the Bundesliga, but has been injured and at 28, may not fit the mold of what Bayern is looking to do with its midfield long-term. If Reus can bounce back from injury (perhaps with being selected for the World Cup team and having a strong showing), he could wedge his way into the discussion, but there are simply a ton of options that would allow Bayern to be ultra selective with adding midfield depth.
Toni Kroos, Real Madrid: Kroos is heralded as one of the great central midfielders in the world; a a reputation that is well-earned. That said, his time at Bayern (2010-2014) has come and gone. His salary and age (28), would likely not preclude him from being a Bayern target at this stage in his career, but the acquisition of Goretzka may be a hindrance to that.
Julian Draxler, Paris Saint Germain: Draxler is one of the young (24) Germans, who could fill a role on the wing at Bayern. Draxler has been linked to the club off-and-on for the past year and would look to be a great option as a replacement for Robben or Ribery, but may be looking toward the Premier League to establish himself on a greater stage. His time at PSG has largely been in the shadows of Kylian Mbappe, Edinson Cavani, and Neymar. Draxler's tumultuous exit from Wolfsburg and his alleged eagerness to leave PSG shows that his ultimate desire is to be an important part of a winning side. Does he want to risk being out-shined again at Bayern?
Mesut Ozil, Arsenal: Ozil is a talented playmaker who creates offense for everyone around him. That role is doubly filled at Bayern by both Muller and James. Despite his enormous talent, Ozil looks to be bound to the Premier League or even Serie A once his time with the Gunners is over.
Timo Werner, RB Leipzig: When it comes to up-and-coming German strikers, Werner is the main man. He's explosive and opportunistic and has proven to be a world-class threat in International play in the Confederations Cup and also within World Cup qualifying contests. While no reports have surfaced of Werner's desire to join Bayern or even that the club wants to see him on the pitch at Allianz Arena, Werner, at age 21, has to be on the Bayern radar as a potential next generation replacement for Lewandowski. Werner's contract with Leizig runs to 2020, a year before Lewandowski's deal is set to expire...hmmmm.
Jonas Hector, FC Koln: Hector is an outside back, where Bayern currently has Kimmich and Alaba holding down the fort. Specifically, Hector has been a stalwart at left back and is two years older at 27 than Bayern's starting left back, Alaba. While Bayern's current depth at outside back, Bernat and Rafinha, are rumored to be heading out this Summer, it's difficult to think Hector would accept a back-up or rotational role at Bayern rather than a more prominent position at another club.
Marvin Plattenhardt, Hertha Berlin: Plattenhardt is in the same situation as Hector, albeit one year younger at 26. If Bayern opts to move on from Alaba at some point (and also decides that recently loaned Austrian prospect Marco Friedl is not a fit in Munich), perhaps Plattenhardt or Hector could be a fit, while a younger left back develops.
Sami Khedira, Juventus: Khedira is 30 and settled in at Juventus. At this point in his career Khedira would not hold any value for Bayern, especially given the current gluttony of talent in the central midfield.
Mario Gotze, Borussia Dortmund: Been there, done that for Bayern. Gotze left Bayern in 2016 and appears to be content in his role at Dortmund as he is trying to re-gain the luster on a once promising career that has been derailed by injuries and other health issues.
Julian Brandt, Bayer Leverkusen; Lars Stindl, Borussia Monchengladbach; Kevin Volland. Bayer Leverkusen; Max Meyer, Schalke 04; Andre Schurrle, Borussia Dortmund: Brandt has long been rumored as a player that Bayern covets. At 22, Brandt is still in the baby stages of his career, where an extended stay at Bayer Levekusen can only strengthen his game. At 29, Stindl is a tad too old to take a run at replacing anyone on the current Bayern roster. Volland (25) and Meyer (22) are interesting players to consider, but can they perform consistently at the level Bayern would expect? Schurrle, meanwhile, is at a career crossroads and is rumored to be on his way to the Premier League in hopes of a revival. He does not appear to be the type of player Bayern would pursue for anything aside of depth.
Julian Weigl, Borussia Dortmund, İlkay Gündoğan, Manchester City, Emre Can, Liverpool: Weigl is an intriguing talent and young at 22, but ultimately would just add to the current stockpile of midfield talent without providing enough of a differentiating talent to be worthy of bumping anyone from the current roster at this juncture. At 27, Gündoğan is in the prime of his career and is another German footballing for Guardiola. Gündoğan, however, doesn't fill an immediate (or seemingly future) need for Bayern Munich. It is hard to see how he would be fit on the Bayern roster. Can is a 24-year old and a former Bayern Youth Academy player working under Jürgen Klopp at Liverpool. Can, who fits the Bayern desirable checklist of being young and German, is similar to Weigl in that he really would only add depth at a time in his career where he should be on the field. If Can moves anywhere, it's probably eventually going to be to Serie A.
Shrodokan Mustafi, Arsenal; Antonio Rudiger, Chelsea; Matthias Ginter, Borussia Monchengladbach; and Benedikt Howedes, Juventus: These center backs are grouped because it is hard to believe any of the group would represent an upgrade over the sturdy trio of Hummels, Boateng, and Süle. Bayern is extremely deep and extremely German on the back line. While Howedes has the versatility to also play either outside back position, his age (29) probably precludes him from being a long-term option for Bayern unless they are seeking a versatile defensive option that can back-up multiple spots. Mustafi, Rudiger, and Ginter are all true center backs, where there is just not a positional need at this stage.
