Deep Dive: The Latest Die Mannschaft Roster and its Possible Future State
It would be hard to criticize much of anything about Joachim Löw's tenure as manager of the German national team. His resume is after all, impeccable:
2008 European Championship - Finalists
2010 World Cup - Third place
2012 European Championship - Semifinalists
2014 World Cup - Champions
2016 European Championship - Semifinalists
2017 Confederations Cup - Champions
Löw has been able to not only enhance Germany's reputation as being technically superior to most opponents, but has implemented the proper strategies and tactical leadership to cement Die Mannschaft as the pre-eminent model for other countries to follow.
Coaching the games, however, has to be the easy part for Löw compared to the work he has to put in with developing the roster for this summer's World Cup. The latest iteration of Löw's squad had some interesting decisions that may tell the story of what to expect this summer.
The 2014 World Cup winners featured the following roster composition:
3 goalkeepers
8 defenders
12 attack / midfielder players
If Löw follows the same formula, the roster decision will be incredibly difficult. We are not quite sure the numbers will match up exactly, but we hunkered down in our war room, fired up the coffee, and went to work.
When it comes time to cut down to 23 players, Löw will have some important decisions to make at several key spots. Below, we take a look at the current 26-man unit, and also some of those players who were left off this international break's roster; along with some predictions about what this all could look like in June.
Defense
Not many teams will have as strong a defense as Germany, but that depth and talent could offer Löw the opportunity to keep additional players at other areas. This is definitely an area to keep an eye on for Löw as we are not quite sure he will need to carry eight defenders again:
Mats Hummels: Hummels is a model of consistency and could be the top center back in the world. With excellent positional defense and a master at playing angles, Hummels is the exact person Germany needs on its back line as the anchor. His poise on the ball and leadership qualities only further enhance his importance to the squad. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Jerome Boateng: Boateng is another central figure to Die Mannschaft's defensive ability. His experience is invaluable, even if his lateral movement and agility have take a few steps back. He is a great player to start and sub out after a solid 60-70 minute performance. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Joshua Kimmich: If there is one position that is completely nailed down and will not change (barring injury), it's right back. Kimmich has developed into one of the world's best at the position and is a future captain of this squad. His ability to create offense and play capable defense is a position that Löw cannot replace on the roster. In addition, Kimmich can move to a central midfield role when needed if Löw needs some maneuverability in games.
Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Jonas Hector: Hector provides Löw with a quality left back to team with Kimmich. Center back is fully loaded with the Bayern trio of Hummels, Boateng, and Sule; along with Rudiger; but fullback is an area where depth is needed and Hector is a steady and consistent player that will give Löw a versatile threat on the left side. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Antonio Rudiger: Rudiger's ability to play both center back and fullback make him a pretty important part of Löw's depth plan on defense. With Rudiger's versatility, Löw may be able to keep an additional midfielder or forward. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Niklas Süle: Süle has grown by leaps and bound in his time with Bayern Munich. He has a confidence and poise that is - dare I say - Hummels-esque. One of Süle's biggest assets is how he adapts to - and plays against opposing forwards who have top speed. Typically, Süle wins these duels and looks excellent in doing so. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Matthias Ginter: Ginter is competing with Niklas Süle and Jonathan Tah for a spot at center back. While Ginter is fully capable and has the requisite experience, we think he is behind Süle at this point. It's not a knock on Ginter as much as it is a compliment to the growth of Süle. If Löw goes thing on defense, it could be at the expense of Ginter. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Marvin Plattenhardt: Plattenhardt was first called up to the senior team play left back in 2017 and has not done anything to hurt his stock. It will be a numbers game with Plattenhardt, though. We are not sure that Löw will go with a back-up at each defensive spot with Rudiger's ability to play at any of the positions, it could give Löw some wiggle room. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Not Currently Rostered Defense Candidates
Philipp Max: The FC Augsburg left back would seemingly compete with Plattenhardt as backup to Hector and has asserted himself well in the Bundesliga this season with 13 assists. We personally think he would be a better fit than Plattenhardt if Löw decides to provide a back-up to Hector, but it does not appear as if its a sure thing that Löw will carry many extra defenders. Predicted Status: Doubtful.
Benedikt Höwedes: Like Rudiger, Höwedes offers the versatility to play any of the positions on the back line. We know this is appealing to Löw, but does he need that much defensive depth. Perhaps the recent injury history of Boateng might sway him that direction. Predicted Status: Questionable.
Shkodran Mustafi: The Arsenal center back would likely be tough for Löw to leave off of the roster, but the numbers dictate that the 25-year old may not have a spot. Predicted Status: Questionable.
Jonathan Tah: The Bayer Leverkusen center back is just 22 and could be competing with Süle. Ginter, Benedikt Höwedes, and Shkodran Mustafi for the final center back spot. He will probably not be in this draw for the World Cup, but for 2022, he seems like a very viable candidate. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper situation has excellent depth even without the injured Manuel Neuer, but it is ultimately Neuer's health that will determine exactly who makes the trip to Russia:
Marc-Andre Ter Stegen: Ter Stegen is very good. In fact, he would be the number one option for most countries where Manuel Neuer is a not a native. With Neuer's brittle foot the subject of his uncertainty, Germany would still be in excellent hands with Ter Stegen. As goalkeeper for Barcelona and also of the Confederations Cup-winning team, Ter Stegen has proven big game experience and is just a solid keeper. He may not be Neuer (really no one else is either), but he's an excellent Plan B. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Bernd Leno: Leno will likely be the third goalkeeper taken to Russia this summer. I am sure it could be debated that Sven Ulreich (see below) is just as deserving, but Leno appears to have the inside track on locking down the third-string goalkeeper spot. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Kevin Trapp: The PSG man is likely on the outside looking in. I am not even quite sure he would make it over Ulreich by summer just given how much Ulreich will have played by that point. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Not Currently Rostered Goalkeeper Candidates
Manuel Neuer: Neuer's foot injury has lingered for far longer than originally thought and I think there is some viable questioning about whether or not he will be ready. A goalkeeper without mobility is not exactly the best fit for a team looking to secure consecutive World Cups. One argument could be made that the entire reason that Neuer is still sitting out is so he will be at 100% for the World Cup. We are banking on that line of thinking here and believe Neuer will be in net for game one of the tournament. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Sven Ulreich: Ulreich has emerged as a strong goalkeeper and we honestly thought he would be a part of this current squad. His play for Bayern Munich in Neuer's absence has been excellent and he has put himself on Löw's radar for sure. That said, unless Neuer can't go, we expect Ulreich to miss out on this World Cup. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Midfield / Attack
The midfield and attack positions are undoubtedly where Löw will have his toughest decisions. With so many high-level talents available, Löw will need to ensure whatever grouping he chooses has the proper cohesion for sustained success in Russia:
Thomas Müller: With the ability to play at the 10, 9, or 7, Müller is a vital cog in Löw's attack. He's a tremendous leader both on the field and in the locker room and has been productive as both a goal scorer and play maker in the 2017/2018 season. Müller is a bonafide starter and will be the straw that stirs the German drink. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Toni Kroos: Another player who is a key figure in differentiating Germany from the field. Kroos is a world class midfielder and figures to pay another prominent role in Die Mannschaft's possession-based attack. His vision and ability to work cohesively with the players that will surround him arguably makes him Germany's most valuable player. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Mesut Ozil: Ozil is another top-level player, who seemingly performs even better for Germany under Löw than he does for Arsenal, where he is among the best in the Premier League. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Leroy Sané: Sané is a pure winger and has exploded as dynamic attacking force under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City. We feel like Sané will be one of the players that Löw rotates in and out of the starting lineup, but will ultimately see more time as a starter. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
İlkay Gündoğan: Another Manchester City player, Gündoğan is a player who will likely float in and out of the starting lineup depending on match-ups. His position on the squad seems pretty solid and he is yet another player who can play the role of facilitator within the German framework. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Timo Werner: The dynamic RB Leipzig striker is Germany's most explosive option at the "9" and should be the starter in what is amounting to the biggest positional battle on the roster with Sandro Wagner and Mario Gomez. Werner is pure energy and has tremendous pace. Despite his relative inexperience at age 22, Werner is the best option for Germany to maintain a high pressure attack. Predicted Status: World Cup Starter.
Sandro Wagner: Wagner offers a different skill-set than Werner with his size and strength and deserves a spot on the Die Mannschaft roster. Wagner's value is related to his ability to handle aerial balls and his ability to use his frame to give the German offense a different look. The yin-and-yang of Werner-Wagner should be a formidable striker duo for Löw. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Leon Goretzka: Goretzka is a strong box-to-box presence and a player who can both be used to bolster an offensive attack or defensive formation. He is the next generation of midfielder for Die Mannschaft and we think he is a lock to make the roster. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Emre Can: Can is rumored to be one of Low's favorites, but he may not be a candidate for anything other than deep reserve. Can has his qualities, but Löw will ultimately have to choose between the like of Can, Goretzka, Stindl, Gomez, Rudy, and some other players not currently featured on the squad among others. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Julian Draxler: Draxler has had an up and down time with Paris Saint-Germain this season, but he seems to be a player that Löw gets the most out of. Draxler has positional versatility with his willingness to play as a wing, attacking midfielder, or central midfielder. We are fans of Draxler's game and believe he has a role to play during the World Cup. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Mario Gomez: If there is any player who has made an effective last minute charge for a spot, it's Gomez. The VfB Stuttgart striker has just been tremendous of late and his experience, guile, and eye for the back of the net make him a formidable contender for the striker position. We don't feel like it's completely out of the realm of possibility for Löw to carry three strikers, but it would probably depend on where Löw wants to go thin. With so many versatile players at his disposal, Löw may be able to justify a third striker, even if many would considered it highly unconventional given the makeup of this roster. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Sami Khedira: At 30, Khedira is no longer a sure thing for inclusion on the squad, but could still be be a part of the team due to his experience. The Juventus man has not been in top form this season in Serie A and could be potentially be one of the players deemed expendable in the event Löw decides to bring in a player that is not currently rostered (Marco Reus?). Predicted Status: Questionable.
Sebastian Rudy: The Bayern midfielder has had trouble finding playing time in Munich, but has performed exceptionally well under Löw. His physicality and grit are exceptional qualities to have on a roster like this, but Rudy is caught in a numbers game. His game play seems to elevate under Low, but unfortunately for him, the 28-year old may not have the chance to prove that once again. As a defensive midfielder, Rudy could certainly bolster a mostly-offensive minded group, but we are not sure he'll be able to overcome the magnificent depth at midfield. Predicted Status: Doubtful.
Lars Stindl: Stindl has been effective for the national team, but we don't see a role for him considering the depth and talent available. His ability to float between forward spots is valuable, but probably not needed considering the other players on the roster. Predicted Status: Doubtful.
Julian Brandt: Brandt has certainly had some excellent moments for Bayer Leverkusen this season, but we can't see him being a part of the this roster in June, strictly because of the already booming talent and depth available. It is not a knock on Brandt's ability or potential; just another case of Germany's loaded talent pool. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Not Currently Rostered Midfield / Attack Candidates
Marco Reus: Reus was a player, who I would have bet would be on this squad. He has been electric for Borussia Dortmund since returning from injury and offers the pace, skill, and offensive creativity that Löw would normally covet. Maybe Löw is offering Reus the chance for further rest or maybe he just doesn't want to take a chance on a player who with Reus' injury history. I think it would be incredibly hard to leave that type of talent home from the World Cup, but I am just a guy in front of computer drinking copious amounts of coffee. Predicted Status: World Cup Reserve.
Mario Götze: Götze, whose dramatic goal against Argentina in 2014 sealed the World Cup victory for Löw certainly may warrant some consideration, but his health has derailed a promising career. That said, Götze has played well of late for Dortmund (particularly when teamed with Reus and André Schürrle) and could inch closer to the roster if he can sustain that level of play over the next 2.5 months for BVB. Predicted Status: Doubtful.
André Schürrle: Like Götze, Schürrle has picked up his play of late, but also like Götze , it is likely too little, too late. Schürrle has a good offensive presence and the ability to both finish and play make, but it does not appear he will get that opportunity. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Julian Wiegl: Yet another Dortmund man, we can't see Weigl breaking into this roster despite his talent. The German central midfield is just too deep. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Max Meyer: The 22-year old Schalke 04 midfielder would warrant consideration for a roster spot for many other countries, but not on this loaded German side. Meyer has that versatility that Löw seems to love, but his position on this team would simply be redundant. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Amin Younes: Younes seems to be one of those players that Löw really has an affinity for, but this roster is too deep and talented to keep a spot for Younes. The 24-year old Ajax forward just doesn't have a spot on this team. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Serge Gnabry: Gnabry's speed and offensive prowess would seem to be a fit, but we cannot see the Bayern-owned Hoffenheim winger garnering enough interest for serious roster consideration. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Kerem Demirbay: Demirbay is another fine player in his own right, but not a player who warrants any serious consideration for a World Cup roster spot at this stage. Predicted Status: Left Out.
Summary
In our estimation, the following 17 players are a sure thing:
Goalkeepers (2): Neuer, Ter Stegen
Defense (5): Hummels, Boateng, Kimmich, Hector, Rudiger
Midfield/Attack (10): Müller, Kroos, Ozil, Sané, Gündoğan, Werner, Wagner, Goretzka, Draxler, Can
That leaves six (6) spots open for contention that we feel will go to the following players:
Goalkeepers (1): Leno
Defense (3): Süle, Ginter Plattenhardt
Midfield/Attack (2): Gomez, Reus
We also believe the following seven (9) players are on the "in-consideration" mix for Low:
Goalkeepers (2): Trapp, Ulreich
Defense (3): Max, Höwedes, Mustafi
Midfield/Attack (4): Khedira, Stindl, Rudy, Götze
It's embarrassment of riches for Löw and what his final decisions are remain to be seen. It won't be easy and it will likely damage some of his relationships with the shunned players, but there is not much reason to doubt that he will make the proper decisions to put Germany in a position to secure another World Cup.
