Bundesliga Match Day 17: Preview and Forecast
The Bundesliga's most fascinating fixture features the table toppers from Borussia Dortmund squaring off against second place Borussia Monchengladbach.
This match-up had a lot more appeal two weeks ago before Lars Stindl and Raffael both went down injuries that will keep them out of this game, though. At full strength, M'Gladbach was poised and ready to take a serious run at the league leaders. Now, Die Fohlen is still playing at a high quality, but might be hard-pressed to match BVB strike for strike.
If anything, Thorgan Hazard and Alassane Pléa have shown that they are both able to perform at a high level consistently and should be able to put pressure on the Dortmund defense even with out Stindl.
Dortmund suffered its first league loss of the season against Fortuna Dusseldorf (!?), but it is unlikely that the defeat will send BVB spiraling into the abyss of Bundesliga haplessness (which is already occupied by Schalke).
One thing to consider, however, is how the roster responds to some of Lucien Favre's recent rotational decisions. It could be strongly argued Jadon Sancho and Paco Alcacer should join Marco Reus as unquestioned starters, who should have a permanent spot in the lineup. To this point, Favre has been unwilling to take that plunge. Will the defeat to F95 make him re-think that strategy?
Either way, Dortmund should have enough veteran leadership and resiliency to bounce back, even against a tough opponent like M'Gladbach. If BVB somehow stumbles again, however, some cracks could start to form in what has been an otherwise sturdy foundation for the season for Dortmund.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3, Borussia Monchengladbach 2
Bayer Leverkusen 2, Hertha Berlin 1: For the life of me, I cannot shake the feeling that picking Leverkusen is going to blow up in my face. Die Werkself has done nothing to earn my trust. Its young talent has - for the large part - disappointed. In what was supposed to be a breakout season for Julian Brandt and Leon Bailey, the duo has failed to deliver.
Hertha Berlin's up-and-down season is starting to peak again, but this is a tough spot. Heading to Leverkusen to face a team that has to be feeling the pressure of under-performing should make Die Werkself extremely dangerous. How mature is Leverkusen, though? Can it withstand Hertha's impact should Die Alte Dame bring a physical and gritty style from the outset? Again, for no good reason I just think this is Leverkusen's spot to make a stand and to stop being a pushover. Hertha is good and probably should be the pick, but this may just be a case of meeting up with an opponent at the wrong time.
Hannover 96 2, Fortuna Dusseldorf 2: Two teams coming off quality showing in the last Match Day as H96 earned a hard-fought draw with SC Freiburg, while F95 took down the league leaders Borussia Dortmund. This is a HUGE game for these teams.
With Hannover sitting in 17th place and Fortuna Düsseldorf in 15th, this game is of supreme importance to both clubs as they seem to avoid relegation. If any team has an advantage in this game, it's probably H96 as the home side, but I expect the teams to battle to a draw.
SC Freiburg 2, FC Nürnberg 1: There is no team struggling more right now in the Bundesliga than Der Club. Nürnberg is winless in its last 10 Bundesliga games (three draws) and has been seemingly regressing more each week. In front of its home fans, in the last game before the break, Der Club should bring out its best effort. This is a statement game of sorts for Nürnberg and once that it should take very seriously.
Freiburg is not exactly lighting the world on fire, but Breisgau-Brasilianer has been competitive and has Christian Streich pulling the strings on a team that is surely looking to take some positivity of its own into the break. Neither team, frankly, is a strong pick. I'm just banking on Nürnberg might be looking more forward to just reaching the break than finishing strong.
RB Leizpig 2, Werder Bremen 1: After suffering a close decision to Bayern Munich, I am bit worried that Die Roten Bullen will come out flat, even on their home turf. Leipzig played the Bayern match with an unmatched intensity and fervor, only to see its hopes slide away like the two defenders and glided past Frank Ribery as he hit the game-winning goal.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, only has one win in its last eight Bundesliga games, but is not as bad as that stat makes it sounds (Right? Maybe? Am I convincing you?). I think it is time that Die Werderaner unleashes Josh Sargent for a start, but it has been reluctant to expose the young American to a possible too much, too soon scenario. I think he's ready and this would be a great time to add a young, hungry element to the lineup against a Leipzig side that could be vulnerable after a tough loss.
Schalke 04 1, VfB Stuttgart 1: I don't know what to write here honestly. Schalke has been utterly disappointing and Stuttgart has been even worse. Let's call it a draw and hopefully both teams can fix what ails them over the break. 🤦♂️
Bayern Munich 3, Eintracht Frankfurt 1: This should be a fascinating contest that will look markedly different than Bayern's blowout victory in the DFL-Supercup. Eintracht is now fully in sync with Adi Hutter's tactics and feature one of the league's top young guns in Luka Jovic --- in addition to Ante Rebic, who gave Bayern fits last season.
Bayern, however, has also turned the corner in adjusting to the tactics of its own new coach, Niko Kovac. Kovac's message has seemingly sunken in over the past month and Die Roten has looked remarkably better than it did earlier in the season.
This game will absolutely be a battle, but Bayern has something to prove and wants to head into the break no more than six points behind Dortmund.
FC Augsburg 2, Wolfsburg 1: The Wolves are unbeaten in their last five games, while Augsburg has not won in its last seven games. Things have to change for Augsburg and a home win over Wolfsburg would be a good way for Die Fuggerstädter to close out its first half.
Hoffenheim 2, Mainz 1: Julian Nagelsmann's team does not have a pushover before the break as Mainz has been pretty solid of late. Hoffenheim is another Bundesliga that has been up-and-down, but it's been mostly positive for TSG1899 as they have fought their way into contention. This game, however, is not one that Hoffenheim can afford to let slip by. Expect Nagelsmann to have his squad well-prepared for Mainz, even during a short week.
Last Match Day record: 6-3
Season record: 65-79
Note: Predicted ties count as a win if correct and as a loss if there is a winner; conversely if a game is predicted to have a winner but ends in a tie, it will count as a loss.
