Bundesliga Match Day 18: Preview and Forecast
- Chuck Smith
- Jan 18, 2019
- 7 min read
Borussia Dortmund's Hinrunde reign of terror was, indeed, something to behold in the Bundesliga.
BVB's sustained and systematic beatdown of the league was amazing, except for a brief hiccup against Fortuna Dusseldorf and three hard-fought draws.
Powered and led by the uber-talented Marco Reus, Dortmund was easily the best team of the first half. But it wasn't just Reus who paved the way for Dortmund's sensational run of play. The emergence of Jadon Sancho and Jacob Bruun Larson helped provide depth, pace, and skill to compliment Reus, while the acquisition of Paco Alcacer and the re-emergence of Mario Gotze has provided Lucien Favre with tactical flexibility required to utilize all of the assets at his disposal.
Manuel Akanji (now injured), Abdou Diallo, Dan-Axel Zagadou (also currently injured), Achraf Hakimi, Lukasz Piszczek have solidified the back line in front of Roman Burki, while Axel Witsel and Thomas Delaney have locked down the midfield.
Missing from that rundown of players was Julian Weigl and Chrstian Pulisic. The duo have found themselves on the outside looking in and that might not change much in the second half. Pulisic's pending move to Chelsea doesn't afford him any loyalty from Favre, while Weigl has been linked to Paris Saint-Germain and just does not appear to be on Favre's radar...at least as of yet.
Either way, Dortmund truly is the Bundesliga frontrunner and has not shown any signs of slowing down. The Bundesliga, however, has a funny way of applying pressure to teams in Dortmund's position. Just six points clear of Bayern, BVB will be looking to stomp all over RB Leipzig again as Dortmund stunned Die Roten Bullen 4-1 in their last meeting.
BVB, however, won't find Leipzig to be such an easy draw this time around. Die Roten Bullen's is in a heated battle to hang on to a top four position and has the firepower to match Dortmund if it can somehow find a way to draw even in the midfield, while also finding a way to clog up BVB's offensive end.
Die Roten Bullen's Timo Werner has been the subject of numerous transfer rumors of late and will absolutely be looking to prove his mettle in this showdown. The more production and higher performance Werner achieves, the greater his chances are to move on this summer and garner the higher wages and consistent opportunity at the Champions League that he desires.
RB Leipzig will be motivated in front of its home crowd and should be be able to muster at least a draw against the league leaders.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 2, Borussia Dortmund 2
Bayern Munich 3, Hoffenheim 0: Bayern's November and December surge likely means bad things for the rest of the Bundesliga as the squad appears to have finally settle in under Niko Kovac. Utilizing a double pivot has stabilized the team and allowed for the forward group to use a much more aggressive attack. This game could be a great indicator of where Bayern is coming out of the break. With a starting lineup expected to contain a front four of Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman, and Serge Gnabry being fortified by Thiago Alcantara and Leon Goretzka, Bayern could be poised to make a lot of noise offensively in the second half.
One subplot to watch is how Kovac handles James Rodriguez and where he will try to fit the Colombian into the lineup. Will he use James instead of Muller or would he opt to use them on the field together with James as part of the double pivot or with another formation change to play both Muller and James higher in the formation? No Bayern fan wants to admit it, but this all looks like it's headed for a Muller vs. James showdown for playing time.
For Hoffenheim, this is the beginning of Julian Nagelsmann's ride off into the sunset before he leaves for RB Leipzig. Nagelsmann has done an admirable job maximizing the output from this roster as the 31-year-old coach has drawn solid performances from Florian Grillitsch, Reiss Nelson, Andrej Kramaric, Kerem Demirbay, Kevin Vogt, Pavel Kaderabak, and Nico Schulz. That core group has helped Hoffenheim sit in an advantageous seventh place position in the table. TSG1899 is in position to make a run at European play, but will need to do a better job of finishing games. Hoffenheim has six straight draws in league play and will need some of those to eventually convert to wins if it wants to really make a strong run at garnering a top six position.
FC Augsburg 2, Fortuna Dusseldorf 1: Both teams should be poised for a turn on the upswing, but I like Augsburg in this one, despite the fact that Die Fuggerstädter has not won a game since October 27th. Alfred Finnbogason and Michael Gregoritsch should be ready to assert themselves offensively, but Augsburg could be missing a few key cogs, namely Philipp Max, which would certainly have an effect on the outcome. I'm also very interested to watch the continued development of Felix Gotze, who showed flashes of what has made him a solid prospect in the first half of the season, but Gotze, too, is battling an injury.
Dodi Lukebakio has been an enigma for F95 and has offered enough capability offensively to make Dusseldorf a threat. F95 could be one of the teams that makes a push in the second half...maybe not strong enough to break into the top half of the league, but possibly out of relegation's reach.
Bayer Leverkusen 2, Borussia Monchengladbach 1: Peter Bosz has a good opportunity to make an immediate impact for Die Werkself. With an offensively loaded roster, Bosz should be able to help coax the group to start playing to its vast potential, but M'Gladbach will not be looking to cede its position as one of the league leaders.
It's really come down to put or shut up time for Julian Brandt and Leon Bailey. The winger duo has not lived up to expectations this season, but has a chance for a new life under Bosz. Meanwhile Kai Havertz has just been excellent and established himself as Germany's best player under 20. When you factor in that Kevin Volland had a solid first half and that the squad also features solid players such as Jonathan Tah (whose potential has exceed his performance thus far), Sven and Lars Bender, Mitchell Weiser, Paulinho, and Lucas Alario, it is hard to see why this team was so poor for most of the Hinrunde.
M'Gladbach, meanwhile, was exceptional in the first half. Thorgan Hazard was so good that now everyone wants him and Alassane Plea, Matthias Ginter, and Lars Stindl all played clutch roles in establishing Die Fohlen as a true contender for the Bundesliga crown. All of that won't help against what should be a motivated Leverkusen side in this one, though.
Eintracht Frankfurt 3, SC Freiburg 1: Die Adler's explosive front line should be poised to get off to a flying start against Breisgau-Brasilianer. Simply put, the offensive flair and potential of Luka Jovic, Ante Rebic, Sebastian Haller is enough to threaten any Bundesliga side. With Mijat Gacinovic expected back from injury (maybe as soon as this game), Frankfurt's offensive potential could be even greater.
Freiburg will counter with mastermind Christian Streich, who will be looking to out-wit Adi Hutter. Freiburg still has solid talent at spots on the roster, but just not the overall depth required to be a true contender. That said, every time that Freiburg looks like its headed into the dumpster, Streich rallies them back. Nils Petersen is the player who is supposed to draw the most attention for Breisgau-Brasilianer, but Gian-Luca Waldschmidt has been more impactful so far this season.
This won't be easy for Die Adler, but should result in a win for Hutter's squad.
Werder Bremen 2, Hannover 96 1: The Ruckrunde represents a tremendous opportunity for Werder Bremen. With American Josh Sargent looking like he is ready to be a regular contributor, Die Werderaner could be one of the key teams to watch in the second half. With a mix of young talent and solid veterans, Bremen could be one of the surprise teams in the Bundesliga.
For Hannover, every game represents an opportunity to climb out of the RELEGATION DANGER ZONE. The squad needs to find itself and establish an identity quickly before the season slips away.
Mainz 2, VfB Stuttgart 2: Mainz was very solid and showed great signs of being competitive in the first half, while Stuttgart mostly scuffled. Of course the biggest story for either of these teams over the break was the announcement that Benjamin Pavard will join Bayern next summer. Pavard, who is questionable for this game, will need to start to show the same potential he flashed in the World Cup against his Bundesliga opponents. It was an up-and-down first half for the Frenchman, but it will need to be better to be up to the standard of the Bavarians.
Mainz should be ready for this one and is not a great match-up for Stuttgart frankly, Die Schwaben will need to get a big game from Mario Gomez to keep Stuttgart competitive. It's not that Mainz is all THAT much better than Die Schwaben, but Stuttgart should not give anyone reason for confidence at this stage. They've got to prove that they have a pulse.
Hertha Berlin 2, FC Nurnberg 1: Hertha Berlin started out the season hot, but slowly faded back down to Earth. That that doesn't mean Die Alte Dame is quite ready to fade off into the lower half of the table, however. Ondrej Duda and Vedad Ibisevic were the primary scoring options for Hertha Berlin, but a key player to watch in the Ruckrunde is 20-year-old defensive midfielder Arne Maier, who has drawn the attention of several big name clubs with his stellar play.
Der Club is in deep trouble. There's just no easy way out of the hole Nurnberg finds itself in.
Schalke 2, Wolfsburg 1: It was a very solid first half for the Wolves and one that has set the club up to return to the league's top end. In Schalke, however, Wolfsburg faces a desperate opponent. Yup...desperate. It's only the first game of the second half, but Schalke has so much to prove.
Domenico Tedesco's squad had a truly horrific first half, but is just nine points out from a top six position. In the scrum that is the middle of the Bundesliga pack...that is no insurmountable deficit to make up. If Schalke has any hope of that, though, it will need a consistent scorer to step up. Mark Uth is finally healthy and could provide just the boost that Die Königsblauen needs.
Live footage of me picking Schalke:
Being 13 games under .500 with prediction, I've got some ground to make up. Admittedly, confidence is NOT HIGH with this week's slate!
Last match day record: 5-4
Season record: 70-83
Note: Predicted ties count as a win if correct and as a loss if there is a winner; conversely if a game is predicted to have a winner but ends in a tie, it will count as a loss.
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