Bundesliga Match Day 19: Preview and Forecast
- Chuck Smith
- Jan 25, 2019
- 5 min read
If there is any team that could be considered the surprise team of the Bundesliga this season, you might have to say it is Mainz 05. That may sound odd --- let's be frank, really odd --- but Die Nullfünfer has emerged from the depths of the Bundesliga to a spot in the middle of the pack.
That is progress.
Yes...progress as Mainz is no longer a pushover for any squad, even the league heavyweights.
Currently sitting in 11th place, Mainz has asserted itself nicely this season in picking up wins over VfB Stuttgart, Fortuna Dusseldorf, FC Augsburg, Werder Bremen, and SC Freiburg, but has played better than its record would even indicate.
Though currently injured, Jean-Philippe Mateta (back) has been the driving force in leading Mainz with support from Robin Quaison (currently nursing a hip injury), Pierre Kunde Malong, Jean-Philippe Gbamin, Daniel Brosinski, Aaron Caricol, and Moussa Niakhate among others. Unfortunately for Mainz, Mateta and Quaison are not expected to play, which will be a huge drag for a squad already struggling to find consistency offensively.
While its offense has been up-and-down, Mainz has taken over the "team that can muck any game up enough to have a chance to win" mantle in the Bundesliga. It's almost never pretty, but somehow has been effective.
For Der Club, it's been a disastrous stretch. Nurnberg is winless in its last 12 Bundesliga games (nine losses) and has struggled so much offensively that leading scorer Hanno Behrens only has three goals.
All that said Nurnberg is catching Mainz at a good time given the team's key injuries and has already forced a draw with M05 back in September. This just feels like another draw for these two squad as Mainz could just be too banged up to race by Der Club.
Prediction: Mainz 1, FC Nurnberg 1
Schalke 2, Hertha Berlin 1: This is one of the tougher games on the weekly slate to figure out (at least in my rattled brain). Die Alte Dame should be the favorite as Hertha is at home and is coming off of a 3-1 win over FC Nurnberg. Schalke, though, is a bit more desperate and needs this game more for its own psyche. For as bad as Schalke was in the Hinrunde, it has potential to be as tough in the second half.
Interestingly, former Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich man Sebastian Rudy is allegedly on the wish list for Pep Guardiola's Manchester City side. Rudy, who was caught in a midfield logjam for Bayern, but now is being viewed as a potentially vital piece for the Premier League power. Regardless, Rudy still has a lot to offer Schalke and played the full game during Die Königsblauen's 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last week.
Borussia Monchengladbach 3, FC Augsburg 2: M'Gladbach will be looking to just keep itself playing consistently and to take care of business against Die Fuggerstädter. With Thorgan Hazard, Alassane Plea, and Lars Stindl all clicking, Die Fohlen is a very tough opponent for anyone -- particularly Augsburg, which is reeling and winless in its last nine Bundesliga games.
Die Fuggerstädter desperately needs a win, but will have trouble finding one at Borussia-Park. Augsburg needs the likes of Alfred Finnbogason, Michael Gregoritsch, and Philipp Max to be better. That trio has potential to drive the Augsburg attack, but will simply need to show much more than they have thus far. Even with M'Gladbach heavily favored and Augsburg stumbling badly, this should be a close game...but Die Fohlen will have just enough to pull away.
Borussia Dortmund 3, Hannover 96 1: BVB passed a difficult test against RB Leipzig last weekend to provide further proof of how dominant it has been thus far. Even without Marco Reus, Dortmund managed to pull out an important victory. While a lot of the focus and attention has been placed on Reus, English dynamo Jadon Sancho, the resurgent Mario Gotze, and super sub Paco Alcacer; it really has been the midfield duo of Axel Witsel and Thomas Delaney that has been the backbone of Dortmund's strong play. The central midfielders have provided great stability and defensive awareness that has allowed the attack to maintain a high pressure and daring style. In addition, the Witsel and Delaney have been so good, that Julian Weigl has been spending time at center back, where he has performed extremely well. It just seems like everything is working for Dortmund these days.
For Hannover, just about everything isn't working. Last season, Hannover proved to be a scrappy and pesky side that had the capability to fight and claw its way into making just about every game competitive. This season, however, the performance and results just haven't been the same. Hannover has just one win in its last 11 Bundesliga games and that number will likely increase after this week.
Hoffenheim 2, SC Freiburg 1: Yet another difficult game to look at. Hoffenheim is absolutely due for a win, but will travel to Schwarzwald-Stadion against an equally desperate Freiburg side. The background schematic battle between Christian Streich and Julian Nagelsmann should be fascinating, but Hoffenheim is just a bit deeper at this stage of the season.
Bayer Leverkusen 3, Wolfsburg 2: The lackluster play of Bayer Leverkusen is absolutely worthy of great concern. As lackadaisical and listless as Die Werkself look at times in the first half, things were expected to change under new coach Peter Bosz, but week one under the "New Bosz" was equally as frustrating as many of Leverkusen's Hinrunde performances. I am an idiot for picking Die Werkself on the road this week against a capable and hungry Wolfsburg team, but I'll do it anyway. (Hungry like the wolf?)
Prior to their loss to Schalke last week, the Wolves were unbeaten for six straight games. American John Brooks has been a stabilizing presence on the backline, while a plethora of players have contributed in midfield and at forward. Against Leverkusen, though, Wolfsburg is in a tough spot.
Werder Bremen 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 2: Die Adler's impressive showing thus far might hit a little bit of a bump in the road when Eintracht Frankfurt visits Weserstadion. Werder Bremen is on the rise despite its relatively up-and-down-showing last week in a win over Hannover 96.
Die Werderaner will need to find a way to slow down Frankfurt, but this feels like a good spot for them to frustrate the high-flying offense of Die Adler. This game will be a good litmus test for both sides, who are seeking to establish themselves as true contender for European football.
Bayern Munich 4, VfB Stuttgart 0: Bayern is rolling and Die Schwaben is not. This one should be a blowout victory for the Bavarians. The biggest question is regarding who will play and in what positions for Niko Kovac's crew. Things have been quite good for the Bavarians as Niko Kovac appears to have settled in on a core group of starts, but James Rodriguez has shown not to have much patience for sitting on the bench. It won't matter in this one, however, Bayern will stomp forward.
RB Leipzig 2, Fortuna Dusseldorf 1: Leipzig's disappointing result against Dortmund might carry a little bit of a hangover against F95, but likely not enough to see a poor result. Dusseldorf has been extremely tough of late, but Leipzig has his eyes on a European spot and doesn't want to lose its grip.
Last match day record: 5-4
Season record: 75-87
Note: Predicted ties count as a win if correct and as a loss if there is a winner; conversely if a game is predicted to have a winner but ends in a tie, it will count as a loss.
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