Bundesliga Match Day 28: Preview and Forecast

Apr 5, 2019
6 min read

One game to rule them all...

Here we go! It's the ultimate version of Der Klassiker. This one contest will directly affect which team wins the Bundesliga crown in the 100th top-flight iteration of this rivalry.

Borussia Dortmund won the first clash (3-2) back in December but each team is different these days. Both are still extremely dangerous.

After a slump to start 2019, Borussia Dortmund has re-grouped and won three consecutive games. BVB will, however, be a bit shorthanded for this contest. Achraf Hakimi has developed into a very nice weapon as an outside back, but could miss the game. Abdou Diallo and Lukas Piszczek are also questionable, while Christian Pulisic and Max Philipp are expected to miss the game.

For Bayern, Arjen Robben and Alphonso Davies are out, while David Alaba and Manuel Neuer are each listed as questionable. Alaba is likely a shoo-in to play, but Neuer's status is not as certain. In addition, there are some worries that James Rodriguez is not operating at 100% either.

Regardless, whoever actually takes the pitch for these two teams will likely put on a show. The star power on the field at the Allianz Arena will be excellent and the speed and pace of play is expected to be break-neck. Bayern will not want to turn this strictly into a track meet, but has the capability to push the pace directly at Dortmund if it wants to.

A key aspect of this game will be where Niko Kovac decides to deploy Thomas Muller. There is a chance that ---despite rampant success--- Muller won't be in the starting XI for this game. If Kovac opts to start James with Lewandowski, it could have an adverse effect on the Bayern attack. Whatever the chemistry may be, Lewandowski and Muller make each other better and one without the other seems to have a detrimental influence.

It will also be interesting to see how Lucien Favre decides to roll out Paco Alcacer. Will Favre use Alcacer (still also battling an arm injury which could hinder his availability) as an ever-dangerous super sub or will be opt to just go with his most effective 11 from the outset?

Another fascinating aspect of the game to watch is how Marco Reus embraces this challenge. Reus has been the Bundelsiga MVP this season bar none and also has been the league's best and most impactful player.

Either way, a game that could potentially feature Marco Reus, Mario Gotze, Jadon Sancho, and Paco Alcacer vs. Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry will be a lot of fun.

Prediction: Bayern Munich 3, Borussia Dortmund 1

(standings courtesy of @Bundesliga_EN)

SC Freiburg 2, Mainz 2: After a brilliant draw with Bayern Munich, Freiburg could be poised for a bit of a let down, but Mainz -- despite still playing fairly well -- has cooled off a bit. Travelling to Mainz won't be easy for Christian Streich's crew either.

Mainz won the previous meeting 3-1, but each team is in a much different spot than it was when the initial meeting occurred. Mainz is 1-7 in its last eight games, while Breisgau-Brasilianer has just one loss in its last eight games (two wins, five draws).

Still, this fixture is a bit too even to really think either team has an advantage. If anything, Mainz should garner a bit of an edge as the home side. Regardless, I'm thinking this one ends in a draw. Here is an interesting factoid courtesy of FlashScore.com: "In every Bundesliga H2H between Mainz and Freiburg, the team that scored the opening goal has never gone on to lose the game."

RB Leipzig 3, Bayer Leverkusen 2: This has potential to be a wildly entertaining match if both teams embrace their true, "go for broke" mentalities. Leipzig seems to have found its scoring touch once again, while Leverkusen is a roller coaster of emotions and performance from week to week. As much I want to believe the teams will play aggressively, I have a bad feeling that my five goal total in the prediction could be way too high.

Hertha Berlin 2, Fortuna Dusseldorf 1: Hertha Berlin was embarrassed last week in a 5-0 drubbing against RB Leipzig. That can't and won't happen again even against a very scrappy F95 side.

Eintracht Frankfurt 3, Schalke 04 1: Schalke is in a very tough spot. Die Königsblauen season of shame seems to only be getting worse and if it cannot find a way to slow down Die Adler, it could find itself contending for relegation. A year ago, I would have never thought this type of collapse was possible, but here we are.

Frankfurt has been phenomenal and is on a terrific run. The only way Schalke can knock Die Adler off course is if it tries to grind Frankfurt down with mauling, physical play and a defensive alignment designed to crowd the box.

Even if Schalke manages to do that for a bit, it just seems like another game for Frankfurt break through and continue its strong play.

VfB Stuttgart 2, FC Nurnberg 1: This is a huge opportunity for Die Schwaben. With Schalke facing a red hot Eintracht Frankfurt side, this is a phenomenal opportunity for Stuttgart to pull closer to Schalke for 15th place. Facing relegation, this is now one of the most important games of the season for Stuttgart.

If Die Schwaben can take care of business against Nurnberg and Frankfurt downs Schalke, it becomes a new season for Stuttgart. This would be a game where you expect players like Mario Gomez, Benjamin Pavard, and Christian Gentner step up to lead a winning effort.

The race for relegation is honestly just as exciting a the race for the league crown.

Wolfsburg 2, Hannover 96 1: This should be a game that Wolfsburg can garner three points. The Wolves have only won one of their last four games, but are a far superior team to Hannover 96, which has been awful this season. If Wolfsburg can't push out a win here, it will have a lot of trouble keeping up with the other teams competing for European football within the league.

Hoffenheim 3, FC Augsburg 2: This could be a sneaky good game. The problem is that we NEVER know which Augsburg team will decide to show up. Whether it has been injuries or general inconsistent play, Augsburg has never gotten on track this season and is certainly no sure thing to be competitive on a week-to-week basis. Augsburg actually looked like it was headed down the right path by picking up two wins and a draw to start March, but last week's 3-0 demolition at the hands of Der Club was embarrassing.

Hoffenheim has just been very good of late and looks like a team ready to finish the season strong. Julian Nagelsmann once again has proven why he is so highly regarded. TSG1899 has just one loss in its last nine games (four wins, four draws) and is one of a host of teams trying to barrel its way into a top six position. Andrej Kramaric and Ishak Belfodil has been very strong of late and have presented Nagelsmann with quality scoring options to carry the offensive load.

Borussia Monchengladbach 2, Werder Bremen 2: With the announcement that Dieter Hecking will not be at the helm for M'Gladbach next season, it appears that the second half slide for Die Fohlen claimed its first victim. M'Gladbach has won just one of its last seven games (two draws, four losses) and has not looked nearly as fluid or dangerous as it did in the Hinrunde. Thorgan Hazard has hit a bit of a wall and the team has followed. Facing Werder Bremen does not present an easy way to turn things around either.

Amazingly, Die Werderaner has not lost a match in any competition since December 22nd! Max Kruse has embraced his role as a team leader and players like Milot Raschica, Max Eggestein, and Davy Klaassen have been superb throughout the season. Werder Bremen has force its way into contending for a European spot and certainly has proven to have enough depth and talent to surge into that top grouping of the table to shake things up.

All that said, this just feels like a draw.

Last match day record: 4-5

Season record: 121-122

Note: Predicted ties count as a win if correct and as a loss if there is a winner; conversely if a game is predicted to have a winner but ends in a tie, it will count as a loss.