Bundesliga Match Day 33: Preview and Forecast
The game between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig is fascinating on many levels. First and foremost, a win by the Bavarians will clinch a 7th consecutive league title, which did not seem all that likely just a few short months ago.
Secondly, there is the underlying current of transfer activity with Bayern and RB Leipzig star Timo Werner. Just a few weeks ago, I had predicted that Bayern would announce the signing of Werner this week in an effort to toss a little distraction toward Die Roten Bullen, but Bayern chose to push off negotiations until after the DFB-Pokal final on May 27th; mostly in an attempt to avoid inflicting some distraction within its own locker room.
From a competitive perspective, this should be an awesome battle. RB Leipzig has been terrific since mid-December and has shown that its young and talented core group is fully capable of making a run at the league's power duo of Bayern and Borussia Dortmund. With Werner as the focal point of the attack, Leipzig is fast and dangerous, which Bayern must account for. The Bavarians will be playing without their normal stalwart in the defensive midfield as Javi Martinez likely won't even make the trip to East Germany.
In Martinez's stead is likely to be Leon Goretzka, who is more offensive-minded than his Spanish colleague. That will likely push Thiago Alcantara back a little deeper, which should not be a big issue for Bayern -- unless outside backs Joshua Kimmich and David Alaba lose discipline, which has happened on more than one occasion this season.
Regardless, this should be a game that Bayern wins, but it won't be easy. I'm thinking it will be closely contested until late in the game when Bayern adds an insurance goal to seal the victory and the Bundesliga crown.
Prediction Bayern Munich 3, RB Leipzig 1
(Standings courtesy of @Bundesliga_EN)
FC Augsburg 2, Hertha Berlin 2: These two squads are both safe, but are coming from different directions. Augsburg struggled this season from the outset, while Hertha Berlin was extremely solid early before faltering in the second half. Both teams have a decent -- but not spectacular -- core group to work with for next season.
Bayer Leverkusen 3, Schalke 04 1: Leverkusen is coming off of a complete and utter thrashing of Frankfurt and it is hard to think that Schalke is going to have much in the tank for this one. It just feels like Bayer Leverkusen is finally on the path to realizing its vast potential.
Part of the reason that Leverkusen is considered so dangerous is the play of Julian Brandt, who ironically could be on his way out. The young and talented forward is rumored to be headed to Dortmund for €25m, which would be a coup for BVB. After a shaky 2017/2018 season, Brandt has been excellent this season and has the versatility to float between wing and central midfield with ease. Should Brandt move to BVB, it will be a very solid move that could have an impact on the table next season.
Borussia Dortmund 3, Fortuna Dusseldorf 1: After last weekend's collapse against Werder Bremen, BVB needs some help to secure a Bundesliga championship, but it also needs to handle its own play as well. F95 will not be a push over, but at Dortmund has to come out and show well at this stage. It cannot afford another let down.
SC Freiburg 2, Hannover 96 1: I'm picking Freiburg in this one, but admittedly this is one of the games I've been least confident in this season (and that says A LOT). H96 looks lost, but Freiburg has not exactly lit the world on fire of late either.
Hoffenheim 2, Werder Bremen 2: Claudio Pizarro's game-tying goal last week didn't just throw some cold water on the title hopes of Dortmund, but it also gave Werder Bremen a little life in what has been a very tough stretch of games.
Werder Bremen has had to battle Bayern twice, a very inspired Dusseldorf team, and Dortmund over the last four games (three Bundesliga, one DFB-Pokal) and looked worse for the wear after 45 minutes last week. The gutty and tough squad of Florian Kohfeldt showed its mettle (as it has repeatedly this season). This Werder Bremen unit is going to be extremely tough next season.
Meanwhile, Hoffenheim is rounding out the Julian Nagelsmann Era and has not shown much quit or even any of the normal signs you might see under a lame duck coach. TSG1899 is too talented to fold and Nagelsmann is not about to lose his "young genius" label over a poor finish.
Borussia Monchengladbach 2, FC Nurnberg 1: A once-promising season has now devolved into a year where the Foals are just struggling to hold on to a top six position. At least for this week, M'Gladbach should be in good shape to hold on to one of those coveted spots.
Wolfsburg 2, VfB Stuttgart 1: Stuttgart is not officially settled into the Relegation playoff spot, but it looks pretty certain that Die Schwaben will playing for the right to remain in the top flight, so every game leading to that point will be a tune-up. Wolfsburg will be a stern test and should win this game, but Stuttgart will have to start gearing up for the possibility it gets dropped.
Wolfsburg, meanwhile, is still close enough to hope for a top four position with its 52 points. Currently, the Wolves sit in 7th place and are trailing Eintracht Frankfurt (54), Bayer Leverkusen (54), and M'Gladbach (52), while barely being ahead of Hoffenheim (51). The Wolves have no margin for error and even with Stuttgart trying to get ready to try and save itself. this one should result in a Wolfsburg victory.
Eintracht Frankfurt 4, Mainz 2: Die Adler has not had an easy run of late in the Bundesliga. With its focus split between the Europa League and the Bundesliga, Eintracht Frankfurt has had a hectic and tiring schedule. After getting blasted last week by Leverkusen, Frankfurt must now find a way to ward off a pesky Mainz side so that it can hang on to its top four position. With Die Adler now eliminated from the Europa League (thanks to a loss in penalty kicks to Chelsea), it should be much easier to just take care of business in the Bundesliga -- even with tired legs.
For its part, Mainz has not made anything easy on anyone this season and will likely push Frankfurt hard in this game. At some point, however, Eintracht Frankfurt's talent will take over and secure three points.
Last match day record: 5-4
Season record: 147-141
Note: Predicted ties count as a win if correct and as a loss if there is a winner; conversely if a game is predicted to have a winner but ends in a tie, it will count as a loss.
